According to the U.S. Census annual state population report for July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022, Arizona was the fifth fastest growing state; however, the state faces a confluence of water issues stemming from drought and reductions in allotments from the Colorado River that make this statistic unsettling. Water wells throughout the state are going dry. The city of Scottsdale, as mandated by its drought plan, halted water deliveries to the Rio Verde Foothills community since the beginning of the year, leaving the community desperately seeking alternative sources. These situations highlight the ominous nature of the water vulnerability facing the state and raises red flags regarding continued development.

In 1980, the state enacted the Groundwater Management Act (GMA) requiring developers to demonstrate an Assured Water Supply of 100 years to protect the consumer given limited water supplies. In 2021, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) rejected a plan to construct residential homes in Pinal County, south of Phoenix, as it determined that the demand for groundwater would exceed the supply, emphasizing the importance of the qualifications placed on development.

More recent, the Lower Hassayampa Sub-basin technical memorandum released by the ADWR in January found that existing and planned water usage in the desert area west of Phoenix will result in a 4.4 million-acre feet shortfall over a 100-year period.[1] This finding prohibits the ADWR from approving the development of any subdivisions that will depend on groundwater and places plans for continued development in Buckeye, one of the fastest growing cities in the country, on hold.

Teravalis, if built, will be the largest planned community in Arizona. Buckeye’s current population is just over 100,000 residents, but the proposed development is expected add 100,000 homes.[2] Due to the ADWR’s determination, the project is stalled until other sources of water can be identified. One option is to negotiate a lease with one of Arizona’s Native American tribes with extensive water rights to obtain water. Another option is large-scale infrastructure projects: pipelines to transport water from other areas, wastewater recycling plants and desalination plants are possible alternatives for consideration; however, none of these options are near-term solutions.

The GMA provides a system of checks and balances to Arizona, although it applies primarily to the urban areas and does not address the rural parts of the state. The Lower Hassayampa Sub-basin report is a “reality check” on growth potential in the desert. Competition for water resources will only escalate as supplies continue to shrink and populations continue to grow. Communities can continue to grow, but navigating the water challenges won’t be cheap, fast, or easy. The situation facing Arizona illustrates the need for better planning to ensure less water demand and legislation to guide sustainable growth.

[1] “Arizona Department of Water Resources.” ADWR Releases Much-Anticipated Hassayampa Sub-Basin Groundwater Model | Arizona Department of Water Resources, 20 Jan. 2023, https://new.azwater.gov/news/articles/2023-20-01.

[2] Loomis, Brandon. “Developers Are Trying to Build Hundreds of Thousands of Homes in Arizona. New Report Warns There Isn't Enough Water.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 12 Jan. 2023, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/01/11/arizona-homes-development-water-scarcity/11036138002/.